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On Lockdown
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ChrisR
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Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 8496
Location: Near London, UK

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something to play with:
https://ahurford.shinyapps.io/flatten-the-curve/
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kaleun96



Joined: 20 Oct 2018
Posts: 164
Location: Stockholm, Sweden

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:28 am    Post subject: Re: Lockdown Reply with quote

Olympusman wrote:
In perspective, this panic and paranoia is getting out of hand. We live out in the country, so our exposure is very low. We invited my brother-in-law who lives in New York City to visit with us but he is afaid he won't be able to get back in. Every year about 14,00 people die of influenza in the United States, yet schools, restaurants and entertainment is not shut down. Also, in the United States more people die every year of bullets than are ever likely to die of coronavirus and mass shootings here very often occur in schools, churches, bars and restaurants.
Mike

Couple of things worth keeping in mind here though:

1. This is a novel virus. We have both vaccines and antiviral medication to target Influenza, we currently have neither for Corona (efficacy of certain antiviral medication is still being explored).

2. Given that many more people can be infected by this disease than annual influenza, it stands that we expect the spread to be greater than influenza, particularly to at-risk groups such as the immunocomprised, over 60, or those with pre-existing medical conditions.

3. The mortality rate is expected to be about 10x higher than influenza, potentially higher.

4. A recent model from the Imperial College London put estimated deaths in the US at 2.2 million, or 1.1 million with some measures in place (social distancing, lockdowns, etc). That's potentially 20x higher than how many die in the US due to influenza and firearms, combined, each year.

5. Due to the sheer number of infections, when hospitals are at their capacity they will not only suffer in their ability to treat Coronavirus patients but also patients with other severe injuries or complications.


I can already see the people lining up to say all of these measures were a waste of time and a drain on the economy when 4 months from now the death toll is far lower than we've come to expect. But that will be because governments took action, not because they underestimated the virus.
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ChrisR
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Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 8496
Location: Near London, UK

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you haven't had enough, here's a 53 minute lecture given in 2018 by the current Chief Medical Officer, Prof Chris Whitty.

One message we can take is that we're getting what we should have expected..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn55z95L1h8
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rjlittlefield
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Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 20491
Location: Richland, Washington State, USA

PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ChrisR wrote:
If you haven't had enough, here's a 53 minute lecture given in 2018 by the current Chief Medical Officer, Prof Chris Whitty.

Very interesting talk, well worth my time. I did speed it up a bit, easily listened at 1.25X.

--Rik
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Olympusman



Joined: 15 Jan 2012
Posts: 4405

PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:59 am    Post subject: Social distancing Reply with quote

I was at the grocery today and found that people were very consideringly dropping their rubber gloves in the parking lot after loading their cars.
Let's bring back Alfred E. Neuman from MAD Magazine -- "What? Me Worry?
Any time I go out I mask and when I return to my car I use hand sanitizer. I make my own since there is none on the shelves - 70% rubbing alcohol and 30% glycerin. When I run out of glycerin, I'll substitute Mucinex to give the sanitizer some viscosity.

Mike
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Lou Jost



Joined: 04 Sep 2015
Posts: 4118
Location: Ecuador

PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I went to the local supermarket this morning for the first time since our lockdown began. (We are only allowed out of our houses from 5am to 2pm). After reading about the shortages in grocery stores of the US, I expected worse here, but the store was well-stocked, and the toilet paper aisle looked even better stocked than normal. Only 30 people at a time were allowed in. Everyone was civil.

The bank, too, was a pleasant surprise. Only two clients inside at any one time. The rest formed a line outside the building, spaced 2 meters apart. I was impressed.
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Lou Jost
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ray_parkhurst



Joined: 20 Nov 2010
Posts: 2504
Location: Santa Clara, CA, USA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lou Jost wrote:
I went to the local supermarket this morning for the first time since our lockdown began. (We are only allowed out of our houses from 5am to 2pm). After reading about the shortages in grocery stores of the US, I expected worse here, but the store was well-stocked, and the toilet paper aisle looked even better stocked than normal. Only 30 people at a time were allowed in. Everyone was civil.

The bank, too, was a pleasant surprise. Only two clients inside at any one time. The rest formed a line outside the building, spaced 2 meters apart. I was impressed.


In Santa Clara, the shopping was crazy out of control for just a day or two before the shutdown order. So many people at all the stores, with long lines and everything being sold out. The shelves were still pretty bare until the end of the first week, but then things were gradually restocked. I have gone shopping for something almost every day, and today was the first day when the shelves were back to normal at the stores I go to. At least almost normal, since there was still no toilet paper or paper towels, rubbing alcohol, etc that are the hallmarks of the pandemic hoarding response. Interestingly there were eggs and milk, and my favorite brand of Yogurt was available, and with very few people shopping there were no lines or crowded parking lots.

Things have changed of course, in interesting ways. The meat and fish service counters are mostly closed, but you can buy fresh-packaged items. I found a sandwich bar open, but my beloved Fish Market is closed. Only drive-thru Starbucks are open, and initially they were allowing walk-in/take-out, but now only accept mobile app orders (as well as regular drive-thru). I waited in a drive-thru line with 20 cars to get my Grande Americano. Folks are adapting fairly quickly and seem to be getting their basic needs met, as well as some vices.

Edited to add: there is also a surprising lack of police presence. I'm not sure if that will last but it is encouraging to see.
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ray_parkhurst



Joined: 20 Nov 2010
Posts: 2504
Location: Santa Clara, CA, USA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:59 pm    Post subject: Re: Social distancing Reply with quote

Olympusman wrote:
I was at the grocery today and found that people were very consideringly dropping their rubber gloves in the parking lot after loading their cars.
Let's bring back Alfred E. Neuman from MAD Magazine -- "What? Me Worry?
Any time I go out I mask and when I return to my car I use hand sanitizer. I make my own since there is none on the shelves - 70% rubbing alcohol and 30% glycerin. When I run out of glycerin, I'll substitute Mucinex to give the sanitizer some viscosity.

Mike


I make my own sanitizer as well...alcohol (91%) and a bit of 5% hydrogen peroxide, with fresh lemon peels. The lemon peels give off a nice lemon oil smell and slippery quality. I considered adding some povidone iodine but I was not sure how much iodine residue I wanted to leave around. In reality it is likely a good surface protection, but not sure about unintended consequences. Alcohol and H2O2 evaporate but stabilized iodine hangs around for a while.
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ray_parkhurst



Joined: 20 Nov 2010
Posts: 2504
Location: Santa Clara, CA, USA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing I forgot to add to this discussion...of all the things that have been shut down, I think the thing I miss the most is the local Electronic Swap Meet. It shuts down from October through February, and starts again (normally) in early March, but they had to cancel it due to the crowd size restrictions and social distancing requirements. Next one is supposed to be April 11, but chances of it happening are zero. After that it's May 9 (maybe?), then June 13 (good chance?). I am figuring that once the Electronic Swap is back, the crisis will be officially over.
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